Fascinating to compare the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on two countries.

Country A

• Has zero tariffs on US imports
• Has a Free Trade Agreement with the United States
• Imports ($34.6 billion) twice as much from the US as they export (16.7 billion) to them meaning the US has a trade surplus with them
• Is a very close and formal ally of the US, in multiple alliances with them
• Has had a 10% tariff imposed on them

Country B

• Imposes tariffs on US imports, above the level allowed by the WTO
• Has no Free Trade Agreement with the United States
• Imports ($526.1 million) one sixth as much from the US as they export ($3.0 billion) to them meaning the US has a trade deficit with them
• Is a historic geopolitical foe of the US
• Has had a 0% tariff imposed on them

What great work. I am sure most people can work out who the two countries are.

In 2017, the geniuses of the Labour Party decided to have an experiment. They said, let’s cut the prison population by 30%. Someone (hopefully) said, you mean by reducing serious crime by 30%? But the geniuses said, no no – just cut the prison population by 30%, regardless of whether people are committing serious violent and sexual crimes.

It was the law & order version of the unfortunate experiment. They opened the doors, and New Zealanders suffered the consequences.

Violent offences increased from 50,110 in 2017 to 76,808 in 2023 – an increase of 53%.

Sexual offences increased from 5,952 in 2017 to 7,312 in 2023 – an increase of 23%.

This is the price New Zealanders paid for Labour’s unfortunate experiment of trying to empty the prisons.

The White House released a list of countries and the tariff rates they charged the US. It was clearly wrong as NZ has an average tariff of around 1.7% on US imports and the list said 20%. I thought it was because they were including our GST of 15%. That would have been very dumb, but the truth is even dumber.

The rate listed for each country has nothing to do with tariffs. It is simply the trade deficit for that country divided by the level of exports.

A trade deficit between countries can (and usually is) nothing to do with tariffs. It is just supply and demand. You run trade surpluses with some countries and deficits with another. It isn’t even really a country to country thing. It simply reflects decisions by individual businesses in a country about where they buy goods and services from, and sell them to.

It is astonishing that the US White House released a document that is just patently false. You can’t just call a trade deficit a tariff. Well you can, but it doesn’t change reality. It’s like claiming that the inflation rate is actually the unemployment rate! These are in no way reciprocal tariffs.

As a tool for policy making, it is incredibly flawed. The geniuses have said that the trade deficit with Cambodia is 97% of total exports, so there must be a tariff of half that or 49%. Now Cambodia doesn’t have a trade surplus with the US because it has tariffs (I suspect they have none) on US imports. It is a very poor country and just can’t afford many US imports.

And just to prove that they are morons who can’t even do basic research, they have announced the following tariffs:

• A 10% tariff on Heard Island and McDonald Islands, which has been unpopulated since 1877
• A 10% tariff on the British Indian Ocean Territory whose only population is military staff who work on a US airbase there!

I’m glad that New Zealand never ended up doing a free trade agreement with the US, because it would now be worthless. Trump has reneged on every single trade agreement the US has signed. The Australia-US FTA is now defunct.

The best response by countries impacted by these US tariffs, is to increase trade between ourselves. We should be talking to China, Japan, Korea, Canada, EU etc and saying hey let’s reduce any remaining tariffs between us, so that our exporters can divest from the US.

Simon Watts and Scott Simpson announced:

The Government is accelerating Local Water Done Well for the Wellington region to provide greater transparency at Wellington Water and ensure it is delivering value for money for ratepayers, say Local Government Minister Simon Watts and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Scott Simpson.

“Over the last few months, I have had serious concerns around Wellington’s water services,” Mr Watts says.

“Recent reports have shone a spotlight on high costs and unsound financial management at Wellington Water with clear evidence suggesting the ratepayers are not getting good value for money,” Mr Watts says.

“I am not satisfied by the progress made to address these glaring problems and without clear and decisive action, Wellingtonians face a decade of hefty rate increases with little to show for it.”

The Government is bringing forward Local Water Done Well for the Wellington region by imposing early economic regulation on Wellington Water. This means the Commerce Commission will begin its role as a monitor for the Wellington region’s water services sooner than other water services under Local Water Done Well.

“Given the current issues, Wellingtonians shouldn’t have to wait for the full economic regulation regime to be in place to have greater visibility over how their money is spent on water services,” Mr Simpson says.

This is a good move. I certainly have greater faith in the Commerce Commission to monitor Wellington Water than Campbell and Tory!

The Herald reports:

A submitter known only as “Amy” has schooled the Commerce Commission on a regulatory change that could, she says, cause her parents grief.

The commission said earlier this week that it is assessing whether to deregulate mobile termination access service (MTAS) rates – or the wholesale charges mobile phone companies charge for terminating calls or texts from other fixed or mobile networks (which may or may not be passed on to customers).

Shortly after 2degrees launched, it complained that Telecom and Vodafone had cheaper rates for calling people on their own networks, making it harder for the newcomer to attract customers.

The market watchdog waved its big stick, helping to create a more level playing field – and an environment where most of us are on plans with unlimited texts and local calls.

Every five years, the regulator reassesses whether it needs to stick its nose into MTAS. The rates aren’t directly regulated, but the option is in the commission’s toolbox.

I know a bit about this area as we did some research for 2 Degrees many many years ago on this.

Back then the free calling only to other mobile phones on the same network had a huge impact on purchase behaviour. Entire schools would basically be with either Telecom or Vodafone, so they could text their friends without limits.

But today is very different. Not only is the market diverse enough that it would be self-defeated for providers to attempt this today, but there are so many alternative ways to message – iMessage, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, Instagram, Signal etc etc.

It was very necessary regulation once upon a time, but the market has evolved so it is no longer needed.

President Trump has announced massive tariffs on most countries, including a 10% tariff on all NZ exports to the US.

The table he released claims that NZ imposes an average 20% tariff on US goods. This is just fantasy. The actual level of average tariffs is around 2%.

What the Trump Administration appears to have done is include any GST or VAT in a country as a tariff. This is of course moronic as a GST or VAT applies to all goods and services, not just imported ones. It doesn’t advantage local suppliers at all.

The reality is that Trump just loves tariffs. He sees them as a great way to raise money. It’s the biggest tax increase in US history.

Because he has imposed tariffs on so many countries, I suspect US prices will increase more than if he had done them on just a few countries. There will be less pressure for exporters to absorb more of the cost.

The direct cost on NZ exports looks to be around $900 million a year. However how much of that is paid for by NZ exporters and how much by US consumers remains to be seen.

The other impact likely to be seen by NZers is KiwiSaver account balances tumbling as global sharemarkets fall. We may also see weaker economic growth and a slight uptick in unemployment, plus more cuts in interest rates.

Edelman reports on their annual trust survey in institutions. The net trust for each institution (60+ is trust, under 50 is is distrust) is:

1. Business 54
2. NGOs 53
3. Government 45
4. Media 35

What is especially interesting to me is how these differ from the global average. The differences are:

1. NGOs – 5 lower in NZ
2. Govt – 7 lower in NZ
3. Business – 8 lower in NZ
4. Media – 17 lower in NZ

That media rating (35 vs 52 globally) should be a wakeup call about why media companies are failing. The solution isn’t taxing Internet companies to fund them. It is to restore trust.

Radio NZ reports:

The article, released on Friday and written by Otago University Professor Nick Wilson, researcher Dr John Horrocks and George Thomson, discusses the growing international concern around impaired leaders, especially in a world of heightened geopolitical instability.

Horrocks noted former United States president Joe Biden during his election campaign debate against opponent Donald Trump last year when Biden shocked viewers with poor skills and slurring words.

The article referred to previous research that concluded: “Who ends up in office plays a critical role in determining when and why countries go to war”.

It examined the four New Zealand cases and called for further research into other impaired former prime ministers, and a discussion around possible safeguarding against such situations including requiring independent medical assessments.

This is all rather silly, and misses a key point of difference between a US President and a NZ Prime Minister.

A US President is elected for a fixed term, and can’t be removed from office except via impeachment or the 25th Amendment – both almost impossible to do.

A NZ Prime Minister only retains office so long as they have the confidence of the House, or more pragmatically the confidence of their own caucus. If a PM is not up to the job, their caucus can remove them.

An other key differences is access. A US President can be shielded in a way a NZ PM can’t be. Every week they have to chair cabinet, chair caucus, attend two to three hours of question time in the House, do a press conference and several media standups.

The four case studies highlighted leaders with diminished capacity leading to reckless decision-making.

The four prime ministers were Sir Joseph Ward, who died at 74 just six weeks after leaving office in May 1930, Michael Joseph Savage, who died in office on 27 March 1940 at age 68, Norman Kirk who was 51 when he died in office in August 1974 and Sir Robert Muldoon, who was on various medications and whose drinking contributed to the demise of his leadership in 1984.

You can be dying, but that doesn’t mean you have diminished capacity for decision making. Let’s look at these in turn.

Ward definitely should not have continued on as PM. He had multiple heart attacks, refused to resign, and Forbes was the effective PM. But this was the 1930s, without the media and public scrutiny we have today.

Savage had cancer and died in office. However I haven’t seen any information to suggest we was unable to make decisions. In fact he engineered the expulsion of John A Lee just before he died. I don’t see the case for Savage being forced out earlier.

Kirk is a bit more nuanced. He was physically very unwell, but was he mentally unable to govern? Well he did have fairly significant paranoia about his colleagues trying to undermine him, or roll him – but I’m not sure this was related to his physical health. And he may have been right!

Muldoon shouldn’t even be in the list at all. He was definitely a heavy drinker, but he was clearly in command of his faculties and the government. He was renowned for attention to detail.

So the only clear case for early removal was Ward, and that was a century ago. There is no problem that needs solving.

Shayne Currie reports:

The founder of The Spinoff, Duncan Greive, says he has been put on notice of a potential defamation claim from news publisher Stuff after a stand-off – stemming from an exclusive report last December – escalated into a pointed email last weekend.

Greive revealed in December that Stuff had officially and legally split into two companies – Stuff Digital and Stuff Masthead Publishing – and analysed the potential outcomes and opportunities of what Stuff’s chief financial officer Dale Bridle himself described internally as a “conscious uncoupling”.

At the time, Stuff downplayed the significance of the move, and took issue with Greive’s analysis and reportage, claiming the article was wrong in places and wanting it removed from The Spinoff website until the so-called errors were fixed.

Basically Grieve said that this split may indicate that part of Stuff could be up for sale. Stuff said this was wrong.

As Media Insider revealed this week, Stuff is also understood to have been in talks with Trade Me about a full or part acquisition of Stuff Digital. It is unclear when those discussions started.

So Grieve was threatened with defamation – for being right!

Sky News reports:

The University of Sussex has been fined a record £585,000 by the higher education regulator for failing to uphold freedom of speech.

Hopefully that will change the incentives somewhat.

Prof Roseneil, the vice chancellor at the university, said the OfS findings mean “it makes it almost impossible for universities to have any policies that will control how people speak or relate to each other on campuses”.

What is hilarious, is she sees this as an awful thing.

And the only thing that universities will effectively be able to do is regulate unlawful speech.”

Oh no, only unlawful speech will be banned! What a disaster.

Stuff reports:

The finance minister has slammed Labour regulation spokesperson Duncan Webb for opposing the fast-tracking of consenting for a new supermarket in his Christchurch electorate.

Webb, who served as minister of commerce and consumer affairs from February to November 2023, posted videos to social media and hosted a drop in session at a local bar for constituents to come and share their concerns about the proposed supermarket.

Labour say they want more supermarket competition, and then their former commerce Minister fights against a new one in his electorate.

NewstalkZB reports:

Tauranga City Council has copped some backlash after accepting a five-year contract for coffee machines and coffee at a total cost of $470,000.

So easy to spend other people’s money!

Richard Harman at Politik has this summary of data from the ASA

So the advertising spend has increased a healthy 30% in five years. But the proportion spent on digital advertising has gone from 6% to 60%. With this change, radio has held up very well as an advertising medium, but TV, newspapers and magazines have plummeted.

The solution here is not a government law change. It is a shift in business models.

Auckland Council Commissioners turned down consent for an 11 storey building on K-road – a decision labelled by Chris Bishop as “insane”.

Hayden Donnell covers it well:

The Da Vincis of denial weren’t done. They said the new building would compromise the heritage of the local area. When confronted with the reality of the site currently being an empty lot whose immediate neighbours are a carpark and a Mobil station, the council’s urban design expert Chris Butler argued the “real world” context of the development extends down Karangahape Road and through the southern end of Ponsonby Road. Why only that far? Surely the real world setting of this building is all of New Zealand itself, which broke off from the supercontinent Pangaea, which in turn was formed out of the dust flung across the galaxy by the Big Bang, and if you think about it that way, nothing should ever be built anywhere ever. 

Great stuff, and further:

Faced with the prospect of people building apartments near a train station and other amenities in Sylvia Park, its planning team searched the recesses of their collective brains and came up to the ingenious conclusion that tall buildings would ruin motorway drivers’ spiritual connection to the vision of a small hill. Nice try developers, but it’ll take more than an overwhelming weight of evidence to force this team to consent to housing.

The RMA replacement needs to be very permissive, so even the most dedicated nae sayer has to say yes.

On Friday night in Takapuna, I had the opportunity to sit and have a, nearly four-hour, conversation with Sir Bob Geldof. He also sang a few tunes for me. I didn’t have much to say back – except much clapping, a little singing along, and standing to applaud for a long time when the conversation was over.

The lights went on and I suddenly remembered there were hundreds of others there too. Such was the quality of his story telling, the drama of his presentation and the skills of his music and voice that I had been in that wonderful zone of being focused to the exclusion of all else.

Born in 1951 Geldof, as he rightly recounts, is a phenomenon. As a viewer I was all the better able to engage as I knew something of the man and what he has gone about. The Boomtown Rats are way more than I Don’t Like Mondays and I have listened to them for many years. At 18, in 1985, I was madly in love with music and LIVE AID was a huge cultural moment. The purpose of it and the power of one man was also something of an awakening of compassion in me to do my best in life for those I could help … and to be prepared to challenge those who keep others downtrodden. I have read his 1986 biography Is that it? I vaguely followed the appalling mess of his marriage destruction and subsequent deaths of his former wife and Michael Hutchence (and in 2014, his 25 year old daughter Peaches). His global re-emergence in 2005 for LIVE 8 and the subsequent influence with world leaders (the then G7 plus one) to improve policy for African nations and get crippling debt cancelled. By then I had an economics degree and had been teaching the subject for 20 years so can claim a reasonable understanding of what was going on. Plus, I loved the music of LIVE 8 and much as I had LIVE AID and the concerts in 8 countries on that day are still a go-to for great entertainment.

But, of course, there was so much more to learn and take in and to try and bring great detail here would be to minimize the incredible performance. Geldof strode the stage recounting key stories, people and passages in his life. He seldom looked directly as us – but when he did it was for impact, and he achieved it. He juxtaposed humour, meaning and tragedy as so few could. His songs were poignant and powerful and yet he finished with the wonderful humour of The Great Song of Indifference with its twisted optimism in the face of all that he has struggled with and overcome.

In one sense it is terrible to be so brief but here is my take after two days reflection.

• A boy growing up in significant poverty in a small country who lost his mother, suddenly, at 6 years old and had a distant, desperate and disillusioned father who Geldof loathed until his late teens … can change the world for great good.

• A man who understands that the powerful have no more human value than the tiniest starving child (for example Margeret Thatcher vs Birhan Woldu). A man who understands how to truly and with great effect – speak the truth to power, unrelentingly, and who can gather people to himself and his cause … can effect great change.

• A man does not need to be anywhere near personally perfect to do great good.

New Zealanders are, by and large, timid people. We have also become accustomed to living in a nation that has, what Tom Scott called in Drawn Out; “a tall lichen syndrome” where people who do speak out, protest and demand better for others risk being called a “river of filth” or worse.

Geldof reminded me, and I would think many others there, that to live at all is a wonderful privilege and that to live with great purpose is the best way to acknowledge that. Near the end of Schindler’s List Itzhak Stern quotes the Talmud to Oskar Schindler, saying: “Whoever saves one life, saves the world entire.” It is a thought worth waking up to each day.

Thanks Sir Bob – for the conversation and everything you have done so far! It is still far from “It”.

Alwyn Poole
[email protected]
alwynpoole.substack.com

Interesting data by Universities NZ, looking at average income by qualification and field of study.

So what is the average salary gain for a qualification, from the previous level:

• Certificate $7k
• Diploma $6k
• Bachelor $10k
• Honours $16k
• Masters $3k
• PhD $43k

And what are the average earnings for a Bachelors degree:

1. Medicine $175k
2. Law $143k
3. Dentistry $114k
4. Economics $108k
5. Engineering $107k
6. Business $105k
7. IT $100k
8. Veteninary $100k
9. Architecture $99k
10. Politics $94k
11. Agriculture $92k
12. Science $88k
13. Justice $87k
14. Pharmacy $86k
15. Nursing $83k
16. Other Health $82k
17. Humanities $81k
18. Communications $80k
19. Sports $75k
20. Education $74k
21. Tourism $73k
22. Creative $73k
23. Hospitality $62k
24. Alternative Health $54k

Sad that education professionals are paid so poorly at $74k average salary. I think the best teachers should be earning at least $120k.

Radio NZ reports:

Western Bay of Plenty District Council is the latest council to leave national advocacy body Local Government New Zealand.

There were claims LGNZ had become “extremely political”, had swung “far left” and lacked professionalism.

As I understand it, the following Councils have left LGNZ:

• Auckland (1,798,300)
• Christchurch (415,100
• West Coast Region
• Grey (14,800)
• Kaipara (27,900
• Westland (9,430)
• Western BOP (62,000)

That’s 44% of NZ’s population no longer covered by LGNZ.

The Chief Ombudsman has done proactive investigations of seven agencies in regard to how they deal with OIA requests. This isn’t just about data, but also culture. The key findings for each are:

• Treasury was a demonstrably high performer in OIA timeliness performance
• Transpower New Zealand Limited (Transpower) has a culture and practice of responding quickly to official information requests.
• While I did not find evidence of Pharmac misusing the OIA, I did identify a number of concerning issues, which are detailed in this report.
•  I see no evidence of Kāinga Ora misusing the OIA … some opportunities for Kāinga Ora to improve its OIA practices.
• My review of Health NZ’s OIA practices, along with these findings, leave me with concerns about Health NZ’s OIA practices and whether they facilitate consistent adherence with OIA timeliness obligations.
• DPMC is a relatively high performer when it comes to timeliness statistics
• DIA … there were examples of extensions sought for reasons other than those stipulated in the OIA

So Treasury, Transpower, DPMC all come out pretty good. Pharmac, Kainga Ora and DIA are okay while Health NZ is pretty concerning.